Liverpool — Redevelopment Opportunity

v1.6 · open data · wider Liverpool (L postcodes) · with realised-conversion evidence layer from 17 years of Land Registry

A ranking of Liverpool outcodes for redevelopment along two strategies in parallel: flip (price momentum + sale-side conversion) and BTL/hold (yield + rental conversion). Risk-adjusted for planning (Article 4, conservation areas, smoothed local approval probability). v1.6 adds a realised-conversion evidence layer from the full 2009–2025 Land Registry history — 41 actual house-to-flats conversions detected and their real margins per outcode. A screening tool to direct attention, not a valuation.

Colour map by:

score

low → high· circle size = sales volume · grey = insufficient data · amber chip in table = outcode has at least one realised conversion on record

Outcode	Growth 18-24	Med house	Med flat	Break-even	3-flat uplift	Realised conv (n)	Med rent (pcm)	Yield (flat)	Yield (house)	Rent conv uplift	Art 4	CA	Approval %	Flip score	BTL score

Top realised conversions across Liverpool (2009-2025)

Most striking margins on record

4 LIVINGSTON DRIVE NORTH, L17: £75,000 (2015-01) → 11 flats £2,372,500 +3063% (2yr gap)
123 HARTINGTON ROAD, L8: £125,000 (2013-08) → 4 flats £1,230,000 +884% (4yr gap)
4 PRESCOT DRIVE, L6: £50,000 (2019-07) → 6 flats £409,500 +719% (1yr gap)
14 NEW HALL, L10: £105,000 (2016-03) → 8 flats £800,000 +662% (2yr gap)
6 NEW HALL, L10: £105,000 (2016-03) → 7 flats £678,500 +546% (2yr gap)
10 NEW HALL, L10: £105,000 (2016-03) → 7 flats £663,000 +531% (2yr gap)
12 NEW HALL, L10: £105,000 (2016-03) → 7 flats £651,000 +520% (2yr gap)
22 - 32 RAWCLIFFE ROAD, L9: £100,000 (2015-04) → 6 flats £497,741 +398% (5yr gap)

Detected by tracing single addresses through Land Registry transactions — a whole-house sale followed within years by 2+ flat sales at the same address. The L10 “New Hall” cluster (four buildings bought at £105k each in March 2016, converted, sold as 5–8 flats each within two years) is the most visible coordinated developer play in the data.

How the scores are built

Both scores follow the same structure — raw × P(approval) × constraint — and differ only in what goes into raw.
Flip score: raw = 0.5·momentum + 0.5·sale-conversion-uplift (each normalised 0–100 across Liverpool). The sale-conversion-uplift is the theoretical 3-flat economic potential from area medians.
BTL score: raw = 0.5·flat-yield + 0.5·rental-conversion-uplift, where the rental conversion uplift is (3 × median 1–2 bed flat rent − median 3 bed house rent) / median 3 bed house rent.
P(approval) is a smoothed local house-to-flats approval probability, Beta-shrunk per outcode toward the citywide rate of 76% (samples marked * are low-confidence). Constraint applies ×0.90 for Article 4 and ×0.95 for conservation areas.
The Realised conv column is the parallel evidence layer: median gross uplift of actual conversions detected in 17 years of Land Registry, with sample size. Where it disagrees with the theoretical 3-flat number, trust the realised data — it captures real-world flats per building, location quality and developer execution.

Caveats

Realised conversions are detected from PAON/SAON transitions in Land Registry — precise where the same address resells, but undercount situations where flats sold by the developer's own pre-sale contracts never recorded a prior whole-house transfer. Rents are asking rents from Rightmove; yields are gross. Median prices and rents are mix-sensitive screening signals. Article 4 / conservation flags are tested at the outcode centroid only. Approval rates are heuristic; some samples are small. Decision support, not financial or planning advice.

Sources: Land Registry Price Paid (2009–25, 204,126 transactions), UK House Price Index, EPC register, planning.data.gov.uk, PlanIt, Rightmove (asking rents). Built 29 May 2026.